1. Who is he?
Congressman Ron Paul is a member of the House of Representatives, representing the Gulf Coast of Texas. He served in the House for nearly seven years in the 1970s and 1980s, was elected again in 1996 and has been serving for the past 15 years. Ron Paul is an obstetrician who has been delivering babies for almost a half century and he served in the Air Force during the Vietnam War. He has a son, Rand Paul, who is serving his first year in the United States Senate.
On the Republican political spectrum, Ron Paul is somewhat of a moderate. While he certainly holds very conservative positions on economic issues, he is very anti-war, calling for the end to the wars in the Middle East. His isolationism, coupled with his criticism of our monetary system (i.e. the Federal Reserve), makes him perhaps the biggest outsider in the GOP field. He could easily be defined as a libertarian and he even ran for President in 1988 as the Libertarian Party candidate.
Congressman Paul will be 76 years old on election day 2012.
2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages
Three things: Passionate supporters, consistency, and tea-party connections
Many refer to Congressman Paul has the godfather of the tea party movement. Congressman Paul railed against the size and scope of the federal government for decades before the tea party movement began. His consistent libertarianism has generally earned him the respect and donations of many loyal followers. His supporters have an impressive online presence and were generally the most passionate during the Iowa Straw Poll in 2007.
3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses
Ronald Reagan was in his 60s when he was first elected. John McCain was 72 years old on election day in 2008. Age certainly became an issue in the election between McCain and President Obama. Ron Paul will be 76 years old on election day in 2012. Age will be even more of an issue this time around. If a 72 year old had a difficult time with candidate Obama, you can bet that Congressman Paul, in his upper 70s, will have a problem with his portrayal in the media. This constant reminder of his age could likely intimidate primary and general election voters.
4. What the candidate wants you to see
Here’s Congressman Paul’s most recent video, discussing his thoughts on the debt ceiling crisis.
5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see
From The Hill:
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) suggested Friday that he wouldn't have voted in favor of the 1964 Civil Rights Act if he were a member of Congress at the time.
While this may be technically consistent from a libertarian philosophy, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is one of the most monumental pieces of legislation to emerge from Congress in the past century (supported by more Republicans than Democrats, by the way) This stance by Congressman Paul highlights some political issues in maintaining a consistent libertarian ideology.
Paul’s son, Rand, faced a similar issue while running for the Senate in Kentucky. From conservative commentator, George Will:
“He (Rand Paul) doesn’t understand that his job is to win a Senate seat, not conduct a seminar on libertarian philosophy.”
“The simple fact is that in 1964, we, as a nation, repealed one widely-exercised right – the right of private property owners to serve on public accommodations whom they want – and replaced it with another right, that is the right of the entire American public to use public accommodations…We were correct to do so.”
This historic piece of legislation states that the local Holiday Inn cannot deny hotel accommodations to a family because of their skin color. Needless to say, this might become a serious issue in either the primary or general election for Congressman Paul.
6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio
There are some states that lean libertarian in philosophy. Unfortunately for Ron Paul, neither Iowa nor Ohio are among them. Iowa has one of the strongest records for minority civil rights since our statehood began over 165 years ago. Opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (albeit not on racist grounds) will not lead to an easy victory in Iowa or Ohio. Although Paul’s populist economic message might catch fire with moderate swing voters needed to win these two states, it doesn’t seem likely at this point.
7. Chances that he could win the Presidency
Without a win in Iowa or Ohio, the path to the Presidency becomes difficult for Congressman Paul. While he has passionate supporters, the media will most likely hone in on his age and his libertarian ideology, thus giving him an uphill battle for Presidency.
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