1. Who is he?
The son of a former governor of Michigan, Mitt Romney was the one-term Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. He ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, but came in second/third. Prior to his governorship, he was most famous for his impressive work with the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. He is a former Senate candidate in Massachusetts, defeated in 1994 by the prolific Ted Kennedy. Outside of politics, his main occupation has been businessman, serving as the CEO of Bain & Company.
On the Republican political spectrum, Mitt Romney is fairly moderate. As the Republican governor of the liberal Massachusetts, Romney staked out moderate positions, which he carries with him today. Romney is also an insider, as he has many connections in Washington D.C. and in the business world. His connections and ideology place most other presidential candidates to the right of him on the conservative spectrum.
Governor Romney will be 65 years old on election day 2012.
2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages
Four things: Money, name recognition, next-in line status, and electability
Mitt Romney raised the most money by far during the 2nd Quarter. Ron Paul raised just over $4.5 million while the bronze went to Tim Pawlenty for raising just under $4 million. Mitt Romney blew everyone away with $18 million raised (except President Obama who raised over $80 million). Also, because he did well in the 2008 primary, he is already well known by the GOP electorate. Furthermore, the Republican party (historically) has tended to elected the guy who is “next in line” for the nomination (i.e. John McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush, Reagan, Ford, Nixon, etc.). Romney is the current frontrunner for the nomination and this should help him in the primary. Plus, he has the best poll numbers against the President at this time.
3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses
Here’s the biggie: ObamaCare and RomneyCare. While Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts, he instituted universal health care in his state. Since the health insurance debate last year, President Obama has shrewdly "congratulated" Romney for helping inspire his health care bill that is now law. Most troubling to small government conservatives is the individual mandate, which forces every American to purchase private health insurance, which runs contrary to free-market principles. While Romney was running Massachusetts, he championed this mandate and signed it into law, thus requiring every person in Massachusetts to purchase health insurance. Needless to say, this is a rather unpopular part of ObamaCare today, and GOP voters might be disinclined to support Governor Romney because of the mandate that RomneyCare instituted in Massachusetts.
4. What the candidate wants you to see
Governor Romney is focused on President Obama, taking him to task over jobs, or the lack thereof. He is clearly looking forward towards the general election.
5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see
In 2008, the media pounced on Romney, referring to him as a flip-flopper.
From the Washington Post:
1. Abortion. In October 2002, campaigning for governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney said he would "preserve and protect" a woman's right to choose. He now describes himself as an abortion opponent.
The above story has position changes on several other items including gun rights and immigration. These position changes certainly hurt him in 2008 among the Republican primary voters and they have not gone away. YouTube has several videos that highlight Mitt Romney’s past positions. As it stands, social conservatives are still wary of his new pro-life credentials.
6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio
Governor Romney might be able to be competitive in Iowa, as long as he could convince social conservatives in the state to support him. As for Ohio, he is the most competitive compared to the other candidates.
In Ohio, President Obama leads each candidate polled but by different amounts
v. Romney – 4 point lead
v. Rick Perry – 12 point lead
v. Bachmann – 13 point lead
v. Sarah Palin – 16 point lead
Ohio is winnable by Romney, as he is only 4 points behind right now.
7. Chances that he could win the Presidency
As of right now, Mitt Romney has the best chance out of all Republican candidates to win the Presidency in 2012. He is the front runner and Intrade currently gives him a 12.5% chance of entering the White House in January 2013. He has to win the primary first, though.
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