Selzer, the influential (and fairly accurate) pollster just released its final survey for the Des Moines Register. Here’s where the candidates stand at the beginning of the New Year:
If you explore the previous Iowa Poll data from Selzer, you can see the trendlines for each candidate as well.
Before the Straw Poll, I provided an analysis of several of the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses. As we approach the caucuses, let’s see where each candidate stands in Iowa as the 2012 presidential campaign officially begins.
Michele Bachmann
Unfortunately for Congresswoman Bachmann, it appears that her campaign truly was a flash in the pan. After her big win at the Ames Straw Poll in August, she failed to capture a national or even statewide following. Her biggest contribution to this primary campaign was kicking Tim Pawlenty to the sidelines, much to the glee of Mitt Romney. Most other candidates have had the opportunity to be the “Not-Romney” candidate for a short while, and the well-spoken, lack-of-skeletons-in-his-closet Pawlenty might have been a more conservative choice for those wanting to avoid Governor Romney.
In the end, Congresswoman Bachmann did not catch fire anywhere. While she has tried to be a conservative voice for the Tea Party, she hasn’t had enough money or momentum for the homestretch. Recently, the airwaves have been dominated by Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul, and with her lack of increase in the polls, Michele Bachmann will most likely be disappointed with the results on Tuesday night.
Newt Gingrich
Written off this summer as a non-factor, Speaker Gingrich has been hoping to pull a 2008 McCain-like move, and win the primary nonetheless. However, his poll leads have been fading away this past week or two and the results of the Caucuses do not appear to be promising.
While Gingrich was an excellent debater and many Republican voters admire his irreverent attitude towards the mainstream media, the attacks against him here in Iowa (and around the nation) have certainly taken their toll. Electability is also an issue for the Speaker. Only 13% of Iowans believe that he’s the most electable against President Obama (which is better than many of the other candidates, but rather unimpressive for a national leader in the polls). Furthermore, polls such as this (taken in November) do not help Gingrich’s case, which show him losing the very Republican state of Kansas to President Obama in 2012. His favorability rating is also poor in the bright red state, compared to his main national rival, Mitt Romney.
All of these reasons lead me to believe that Gingrich will be fortunate to bring home the bronze in the 2012 Iowa Caucuses.
Ron Paul
Ron Paul has been steadily gaining in the polls here in Iowa primarily because of his economic message, which resonates loudly with many Tea Party voters that desperately wish to shrink the size of Washington D.C. However, Congressman Paul has had a tough week, defending charges of racism in his past. Furthermore, Congressman Paul’s foreign policy views remain outside of mainstream Republican orthodoxy. In general, Iowa Republicans showing up for the caucus are going to admire Ron Paul’s “Cut Spending” message, but they will be unimpressed by his stance on the recently feisty Iran.
In the end, Ron Paul seemingly has a ceiling that he is bumping against right now. If he can shave a few points off Romney, while holding off Rick Santorum, a victory for him might be in the cards. However, his future in the primary is a bit cloudier as he looks toward New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada.
Rick Perry
Governor Perry, much like Governor Pawlenty, looks pretty good on paper. On paper, Governor Perry probably looks better than all the other candidates. However, he has met with significant road bumps on his path to the White House such as campaign staff issues, odd behavior, and his debate gaffes. At this time, Perry just hasn’t found the correct formula to race to the head of the pack.
On the bright side, Perry still has money and a large network of supporters. If you live in Iowa, you’ve probably seen at least one of his ten television advertisements, which have increased in number over the past month. The fundamental problem of his campaign still remains, though. Iowa voters still aren’t connecting with him. A month ago, before his Iowa advertising blitz, Perry was polling 10-15% in Iowa. This week’s polling has shown Perry with 10-15% in Iowa. His massive advertising has not given him the bump that he needs. Many Iowans who I’ve spoken with aren’t buying into Rick Perry because of three reasons. First, he made many Iowa Republicans unhappy by deliberately announcing his candidacy on the same day that the Ames Straw Poll was being held. Second, he started his campaign too late for traditional retail politics (Fred Thompson comes to mind). Finally, many folks still remember his poor debate performances, which concern them in advance of the general election.
Unfortunately for Governor Perry, he is still mired in the low double digits, and it doesn’t look like he can move much in 48 hours.
Mitt Romney
Governor Romney might be the luckiest man in politics today. Since August, whenever a fellow Republican challenged Romney at the head of the polling pack, they plummeted as quickly as they rose. As of right now, that list includes most of the Republican contenders. Despite the fact that Republicans across the nation are rather wary of him, it truly is a fortunate time to be Mitt Romney.
This Iowa Poll has Mitt Romney at the head of the pack, with precious little time for someone else to catch him. Recently, Romney has been highlighting his business experience and his long time marriage to his wife, Ann, in hopes of capturing at least a few social conservatives who don’t believe that Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, or Rick Perry are electable.
How effective will he be? He will almost certainly be in the top three, but if he does manage to win the Iowa Caucuses, this nomination battle might be surprisingly short, as Romney is a favorite to win the New Hampshire Primary. No Republican candidate has ever won both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary in the same year (not counting incumbent Presidents Ford, Reagan, Bush, and Bush in 76, 84, 92, and 04).
If Romney can hold on in Iowa, his chances of facing President Obama in November are all but certain.
Rick Santorum
Senator Rick Santorum should be glowing. His hard work in Iowa appears to be paying off and he has increased in the polls.
From the Register
What makes Santorum’s growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.
Rick Santorum has vaulted towards the lead in the Iowa Poll, and he appears to be in a similar position as Mitt Romney: He’s most likely top three, but especially hoping for first place. The trends from Thursday and Friday seem to be in the former senator’s favor. His television ads and his tiresome trekking throughout the atypical snowless fields of Iowa’s 99 counties have clearly earned him some support.
Will it be enough? The problem for Rick Santorum is not Iowa; rather, it’s what comes next for him. Nearly all of his organizational efforts have been poured into Iowa and he is not ready for a national campaign at this time. Perhaps Republican donors will open their wallets if Rick Santorum wins Iowa, but it seems doubtful at this moment.
Overall
Of course, with so many undecided voters and less than 48 hours until the caucus, things can change dramatically. A poll from PPP taken on Friday and Saturday showed the following results:
The race is still very fluid, and while Rick Santorum certainly has momentum, the deciding factor may wind up being the number of unexcited Iowa Republicans who actually show up to vote this year.
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