Senate Race #3 – Wisconsin

The next three posts will revolve around three Senate races that the Democrats were probably hoping to keep rather safe this year. These hopes, however, will not become reality.

59 D to 41 R – This is the current partisan breakdown in the Senate.

One year ago, most pundits would have said that the Republicans might gain 4-5 seats in the Senate this cycle. However, it is fascinating to see where we’ve come over the past 12 months. 10 Republican wins and 10 Democratic Senate losses in November are certainly possible. This would give the Republicans a majority in the Senate.

Three major reasons for this potential Republican majority are the Senate races in Washington, Wisconsin, and California. From Politico:

At the start of the year, few observers thought the Senate was up for grabs, in part because it seemed implausible that Washington’s Patty Murray, California’s Barbara Boxer and Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold were in any serious danger.

But with the political environment turning toxic for Democrats and incumbents, Murray drawing perhaps her toughest possible opponent and Boxer and Feingold facing self-funders, the three Class of 1992 veterans are in the fight of their long political lives as the battle for control of the Senate moves from traditional battlegrounds to blue state venues.

We start with our neighbors to the northwest, Wisconsin. They have elected Russ Feingold three times, and he’s trying to make it four. Feingold has always been an interesting Democrat, sometimes bucking the trends. For example, he voted against the Obama/Bush supported $700 billion bank bailout. He was also the only senator to vote against the Patriot Act, which passed through the Senate by a 98-1 vote. However, he voted for both Obamacare and the $800 billion stimulus package last year. Overall, he’s pretty loyal to the Democratic platform, and that may cause him trouble this year.

His opponent, businessman Ron Johnson, is well financed and could potentially knock off this 18-year Senator.

Ron Johnson v. Russ Feingold


Polling average, from Pollster.com

RJ - 47%
RF - 46%

Percentage chance of a party change
51%

Current status
Toss Up

Election night results estimate
Johnson 49.3%
Feingold 49.1%

Final Thoughts
Wisconsin is a purple state at heart. With the wind at his back, Ron Johnson could really give Senator Feingold a run for his money. Still, Senator Feingold isn’t hated in Wisconsin, and he gives off that “maverick” vibe that voters like. It may just propel him over the finish line. Here’s hoping it won’t though.