Senate Race #1 - Iowa

Currently, there are 41 Republicans in the Senate. Had Scott Brown not won the special election to replace liberal lion Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, there would only be 40 Republican held seats, which would not be able to overcome a successful Democratic cloture vote (which essentially halts a filibuster). The health care bill was only passed because of clever use of Senate rules, which allowed for the first vote to occur before Scott Brown was elected. After that, the use of reconciliation precluded any filibuster from occurring, and we received what has become known as “Obamacare.”

To avoid any future worries of unfortunate legislation, Republicans across the country should be doing what they can to increase the number of seats held by Republicans, particularly conservative ones.

Of course, we start by looking at our own state of Iowa. The Republican in the race, Chuck Grassley has been Iowa's senior senator for many years now, and frankly, he's a most excellent representative of the people. An Iowa farmer at heart, Chuck is more conservative than the average Iowa voter (although Tom Harkin is WAY more liberal than the average Iowa voter), which makes Grassley even more valuable, because conventional wisdom would expect a Republican to be less conservative from a swing state such as Iowa.

Chuck Grassley serves Iowa in several important ways. He serves on the powerful Senate Judiciary committee, as well as the influential Senate Agriculture committee. Furthermore, he is the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, and he is the 10th most senior member of the upper house. His amount of power and influence is very important for Iowans to have in Washington D.C.

Senator Grassley is an avid campaigner, who usually succeeds at visiting all 99 counties of Iowa every year, meeting with and listening to Iowans all across the state. He is consistently the most popular politician in Iowa, surpassing junior Senator Harkin, and even President Obama in polls that measure approval ratings.

Senator Grassley's history of exceptional service to the state of Iowa, coupled with his general approval by the people of Iowa make him a tough foe this November, even for the most knowledgeable, likable, and well-funded Democratic candidate.

Fortunately for Grassley, Democrats in Iowa did not choose a candidate with all three of those qualities. In the June primary, Roxanne Conlin was nominated to oppose Grassley in November. While Conlin is definitely well-funded and she seems knowledgeable, her likability (in other words, her personality) is lacking. While this is only anecdotal evidence, many Democrats who I have spoken with are not fond of Conlin as a person. They feel as though she is bristling, abrasive, and that she lacks a certain kind of warmth that voters like. In contrast, Chuck Grassley is a man who has met with tens of thousands of Iowans over the years, and they have continued to reelect him with over 66% of the vote in EVERY reelection campaign. Do Iowans like Grassley? The answer is clear...yes.

However, in the end, likability can only get you so many votes. You gotta be competent, and you gotta have money, and Grassley has both intelligence and a massive war chest of over five million dollars.

National Democrats would love to make this race competitive, but at this point, this race still leans towards Senator Grassley. While Conlin will make this race more competitive than any other reelection campaign for Grassley, she will most likely fall short. Chuck Grassley, the most popular politician in Iowa, is simply too well-liked to overcome. Iowans want to keep him where he is, which is the right move.

Grassley v. Conlin




Polling average, from Pollster.com

CG - 54%
RC - 37%

Percentage chance of a party change
10%

Current status
Safe Republican Seat

Election night results estimate
Grassley 54%
Conlin 45%

Final Thoughts

Roxianne Conlin's mug shot certainly shares some similarities with Dustin Hoffman from Tootsie.