An Iowa Election Poll

Here’s the latest polling from Rasmussen:

2010 Senate
53% Grassley (R), 40% Conlin (D)

2010 Governor
53% Branstad (R), 38% Culver (D)
45% Vander Plaats (R), 41% Culver (D)
43% Culver (D), 41% Roberts (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chuck Grassley: 63 / 34 (+29)
Terry Branstad: 59 / 38 (+21)
Bob Vander Plaats: 44 / 35 (+9)

Rod Roberts: 31 / 27 (+4)
Roxanne Conlin: 44 / 40 (+4)
Chet Culver: 44 / 53 (-9)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 51 (-3)
Gov. Culver: 43 / 56 (-13)

After looking at these numbers, one thing is for sure: Governor Chet Culver is going to have a very tough November unless these numbers turn around. Anytime an incumbent is hovering around a 40% approval rating, he’s usually toast. 50% is usually the safe mark, where an incumbent can at least have a fighting chance at reelection.

It looks as though Vander Plaats would defeat Culver in a close election. A Roberts nomination would probably produce a nail biter on election night. A Brandstad nomination would be an easy victory for the former governor.

However, the primary for the GOP is still a month away. Will the Republican electorate demand a social conservative in BVP or will they be willing to accept a social moderate/conservative in Terry Branstad? Or will they want the soft-spoken Roberts to run against the Governor? Time will tell.

As for the Senate race, the race is getting closer. Although Chuck Grassley is the most popular politician in the state, besting the Hawkeye state’s junior Senator Harkin, and even President Obama, he is only up 13 points on prolific fundraiser and likely Democratic nominee Roxanne Conlin. Conlin should be pleased with this poll, putting her within striking distance of being within striking distance. However, she should not be pleased with the favorability ratings. At this point, most Iowans seemingly know who she is, and have an opinion towards her. This is no good for Ms. Conlin. At this point in the campaign, a much more enviable position is that of Rod Roberts. Only a small majority of Iowans have an opinion of the gubernatorial candidate.

If Conlin had those kinds of numbers, she would have more room to grow and make up those 13 points against Iowa’s senior senator. However, it’s going to be tough for her to do that.

Some good news for Conlin? At least she’s not Governor Culver.