1. Who is she?
Congresswoman Bachmann is a member of the House of Representatives, representing the good people of Minnesota. She has served in the House since 2007, for nearly 5 years. Before that, she was a member of the Minnesota state senate for 6 years. She also worked for the I.R.S. in the late 80s and early 90s. During most of the Clinton years, she stayed at home with her children, while taking in 23 foster children during this time.
On the Republican political spectrum, she is very conservative. As a tea-party favorite, she is somewhat of an outsider, despite her 5 years in Washington D.C. She is a strong social conservative, and will most likely be fighting Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul for social conservative and/or tea party votes.
Congresswoman Bachmann will be 56 years old on election day 2012.
2. Why she could win the primary – Biggest advantages
Four things: Passion, powerful rhetoric, widespread tea-party support, and her foster work.
Michele Bachmann can fire up a crowd and she can bring together tea-party supporters and social conservatives, because she is a leader within both groups. Family oriented Republicans will especially be impressed with her work as a foster parent.
3. Why she could lose the primary – Biggest weaknesses
Her record in the House, as many will tell you, is not very storied. From the Register:
Bachmann has authored 46 bills and resolutions since joining the House in 2007, according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune profile. Among the article’s findings: Most of her bills died in committee, and none has become law. Three of her resolutions passed in the House but not in the Senate. One recognized Minnesota’s 150th anniversary, while another honored service to foster children.
This lack of success might not play well with Republican primary voters and/or general election independents who are very displeased with the work, or lack thereof, of Congress. As a rule, Congress is generally more unpopular than even King George III in this country. As a member of Congress, she might receive collateral unpopularity due to her membership in the august body.
4. What the candidate wants you to see
5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see
Congresswoman Bachmann probably does not want you to utilize Google or YouTube.
When you Google her name, the first results are her House website, Wikipedia, and her campaign page (fairly standard). However, move beyond the news and images, the next five results are titled:
- Michele Bachmann’s Holy War
- 10 of the Craziest Things Michele Bachmann Has Ever Said
- Michele Bachmann Says the Darndest Things (Video)
- Michele Bachmann Exclusive: Pray Away the Gay
- John Wayne to John Adams: Michele Bachmann stands by her misstatements
When you search for Michele Bachmann on YouTube, the first five videos are titled:
- Michele Bachmann Says The Darndest Things
- Fun Facts About Michele Bachmann
- Bachmann Wants McCarthy-Like Witch Hunt For Anti-Americans
- Rep. Michele Bachmann Delivers Tea Party Response to State of the Union ***
- Michele Bachmann's Story of America
Only one of these videos is positive (***). Thus, Michele Bachmann could potentially have a problem introducing and defining herself to the entire American electorate.
6. How would she fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio
Michele Bachmann was born in Waterloo, Iowa. Thus, there may be an inherent home state advantage for her. Certainly, there are parts of Iowa that are culturally conservative and she would win big there. However, would she win enough support with Iowa suburbanites who care more about jobs and getting things done? Barack Obama won Iowa by 9 points in 2008. I’m not sure if Bachmann's homefield advantage alone can overcome the President's margin of victory 2008.
As for Ohio, it is likely that she would lose the state. This recent Quinnipiac poll shows her losing Ohio by 13 points, 49 to 36. Unfortunately for the Congresswoman, this does not bode well for her hopes of winning the White House. Without a win in Ohio, a Republican candidate will almost certainly not prevail in 2012.
7. Chances that she could win the Presidency
Due to her likely loss of Ohio and other swing states, it seems unlikely that Michele Bachmann will take the oath of office in 2013. While there certainly is a chance, Congresswoman Bachmann has an uphill climb. Also, never forget how the mainstream media enjoys picking on a prominent, conservative woman. Sarah Palin, anyone?
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