Candidate Guide for the 2011 GOP Iowa Straw Poll in Ames - 2012 Republican Primary

The Iowa Straw Poll (ISP) is less than a month away and the time to start winnowing the large field of GOP candidates has arrived. History has shown that after each previous Straw Poll, there’s always been at least one candidate who drops out due to poor performance. Thus, the ISP maintains at least some importance in this year-long primary process.

Who are the candidates on the ISP Ballot? Here they are:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Jon Huntsman
Thaddeus McCotter
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum




Over the next few days, we’ll be looking first at the candidates that will most likely receive a good amount of support in the Iowa Straw Poll. For example, conventional wisdom suggests that Newt Gingrich, Thaddeus McCotter, and Jon Huntsman will not do very well in the Straw Poll. Because of this, we’ll save posts about them for later.

In this series of posts, we’ll be looking at each candidate in regards to seven different topics

1. Who are they?

We’ll do a quick overview of their past experiences. We’ll also look at where they lie on paper, with the help of the Nate Silver, statistics guru. In February, he created the chart below (which I’ve updated by removing those who are definitely not running). This chart outlines where each candidate lies (insider-outsider, conservative-moderate, with each color representing the candidates’ home regions).




2. Why they could win the primary – Biggest advantages

What gives them the extra edge in the Republican race to face President Obama?

3. Why they could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Every candidate has at least one weakness, either with the Republican electorate or the general population.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

By now, we’ve seen advertisements from nearly all the candidates. In this category we’ll put their best foot forward.

5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

Ahh…the power of YouTube. In the second decade of this new millennium, a regular American’s first impression of these candidates will be what they find on YouTube or through a Google search. Thus, any video clip, press release, or skeleton in the closet that is problematic can easily sink a candidate in the primary, or even worse, the general election.

Remember that President Obama has already been through extensive “vetting” during his primary against the Clintons and then in the general election as well. For the most part, we shouldn’t expect an “October Surprise” that hurts Obama. We should, however, make sure that a nasty surprise doesn’t sink our candidate…that’s what the primary season is for. Imagine how angry the Democrats would have been if they had nominated John Edwards as their candidate in 2008.


6. How would they fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

I believe that Iowa is going to be a very competitive state in November of 2012. Thus, a candidate should be able to perform well here in a general election. As for Ohio, the Republican candidate must win Ohio to become the next President of the United States. Thus, we’ll estimate how a candidate might perform there as well.

7. Chances that they could win the Presidency

Currently, the prediction markets (such as Intrade) believe that President Obama has roughly a 60% chance of being reelected. However, that number could go either way depending on who the Republicans nominate for the Presidency. Simply stated, some candidates have a better shot at winning against Obama.

We’ll be looking at the following six candidates:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

I am not including Sarah Palin (former governor of Alaska) and Rick Perry (current governor of Texas), because they are not declared candidates at this point. Plus, I’m a little concerned about the following two polls, which has them both losing to Obama in Ohio and Texas.

Ohio, a must win state for the Republicans in 2012

Obama 51 - Palin 35 (16 point lead)
Obama 47 - Perry 35 (12 point lead)

Texas, usually a very reliable state for the Republicans in presidential election:

Obama 46 - Palin 44
Obama 47 - Perry 45

While I am certainly concerned about Ohio, my biggest fears regarding Palin and Perry revolve around Texas. Needless to say, all Texans know who Obama is and who Palin and Perry are. And yet, with that knowledge, this poll has them losing the state’s electoral votes to President Obama. While they are not candidates at this point, we’ll see what transpires over the next month.