Candidate Guide for the 2011 GOP Iowa Straw Poll in Ames - 2012 Republican Primary

The Iowa Straw Poll (ISP) is less than a month away and the time to start winnowing the large field of GOP candidates has arrived. History has shown that after each previous Straw Poll, there’s always been at least one candidate who drops out due to poor performance. Thus, the ISP maintains at least some importance in this year-long primary process.

Who are the candidates on the ISP Ballot? Here they are:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Jon Huntsman
Thaddeus McCotter
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum




Over the next few days, we’ll be looking first at the candidates that will most likely receive a good amount of support in the Iowa Straw Poll. For example, conventional wisdom suggests that Newt Gingrich, Thaddeus McCotter, and Jon Huntsman will not do very well in the Straw Poll. Because of this, we’ll save posts about them for later.

In this series of posts, we’ll be looking at each candidate in regards to seven different topics

1. Who are they?

We’ll do a quick overview of their past experiences. We’ll also look at where they lie on paper, with the help of the Nate Silver, statistics guru. In February, he created the chart below (which I’ve updated by removing those who are definitely not running). This chart outlines where each candidate lies (insider-outsider, conservative-moderate, with each color representing the candidates’ home regions).




2. Why they could win the primary – Biggest advantages

What gives them the extra edge in the Republican race to face President Obama?

3. Why they could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Every candidate has at least one weakness, either with the Republican electorate or the general population.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

By now, we’ve seen advertisements from nearly all the candidates. In this category we’ll put their best foot forward.

5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

Ahh…the power of YouTube. In the second decade of this new millennium, a regular American’s first impression of these candidates will be what they find on YouTube or through a Google search. Thus, any video clip, press release, or skeleton in the closet that is problematic can easily sink a candidate in the primary, or even worse, the general election.

Remember that President Obama has already been through extensive “vetting” during his primary against the Clintons and then in the general election as well. For the most part, we shouldn’t expect an “October Surprise” that hurts Obama. We should, however, make sure that a nasty surprise doesn’t sink our candidate…that’s what the primary season is for. Imagine how angry the Democrats would have been if they had nominated John Edwards as their candidate in 2008.


6. How would they fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

I believe that Iowa is going to be a very competitive state in November of 2012. Thus, a candidate should be able to perform well here in a general election. As for Ohio, the Republican candidate must win Ohio to become the next President of the United States. Thus, we’ll estimate how a candidate might perform there as well.

7. Chances that they could win the Presidency

Currently, the prediction markets (such as Intrade) believe that President Obama has roughly a 60% chance of being reelected. However, that number could go either way depending on who the Republicans nominate for the Presidency. Simply stated, some candidates have a better shot at winning against Obama.

We’ll be looking at the following six candidates:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

I am not including Sarah Palin (former governor of Alaska) and Rick Perry (current governor of Texas), because they are not declared candidates at this point. Plus, I’m a little concerned about the following two polls, which has them both losing to Obama in Ohio and Texas.

Ohio, a must win state for the Republicans in 2012

Obama 51 - Palin 35 (16 point lead)
Obama 47 - Perry 35 (12 point lead)

Texas, usually a very reliable state for the Republicans in presidential election:

Obama 46 - Palin 44
Obama 47 - Perry 45

While I am certainly concerned about Ohio, my biggest fears regarding Palin and Perry revolve around Texas. Needless to say, all Texans know who Obama is and who Palin and Perry are. And yet, with that knowledge, this poll has them losing the state’s electoral votes to President Obama. While they are not candidates at this point, we’ll see what transpires over the next month.

Michele Bachmann – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Michele Bachmann

1. Who is she?

Congresswoman Bachmann is a member of the House of Representatives, representing the good people of Minnesota. She has served in the House since 2007, for nearly 5 years. Before that, she was a member of the Minnesota state senate for 6 years. She also worked for the I.R.S. in the late 80s and early 90s. During most of the Clinton years, she stayed at home with her children, while taking in 23 foster children during this time.

On the Republican political spectrum, she is very conservative. As a tea-party favorite, she is somewhat of an outsider, despite her 5 years in Washington D.C. She is a strong social conservative, and will most likely be fighting Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul for social conservative and/or tea party votes.

Congresswoman Bachmann will be 56 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why she could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Four things: Passion, powerful rhetoric, widespread tea-party support, and her foster work.

Michele Bachmann can fire up a crowd and she can bring together tea-party supporters and social conservatives, because she is a leader within both groups. Family oriented Republicans will especially be impressed with her work as a foster parent.

3. Why she could lose the primary – Biggest weaknesses

Her record in the House, as many will tell you, is not very storied. From the Register:

Bachmann has authored 46 bills and resolutions since joining the House in 2007, according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune profile. Among the article’s findings: Most of her bills died in committee, and none has become law. Three of her resolutions passed in the House but not in the Senate. One recognized Minnesota’s 150th anniversary, while another honored service to foster children.

This lack of success might not play well with Republican primary voters and/or general election independents who are very displeased with the work, or lack thereof, of Congress. As a rule, Congress is generally more unpopular than even King George III in this country. As a member of Congress, she might receive collateral unpopularity due to her membership in the august body.

4. What the candidate wants you to see



5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

Congresswoman Bachmann probably does not want you to utilize Google or YouTube.

When you Google her name, the first results are her House website, Wikipedia, and her campaign page (fairly standard). However, move beyond the news and images, the next five results are titled:

- Michele Bachmann’s Holy War
- 10 of the Craziest Things Michele Bachmann Has Ever Said
- Michele Bachmann Says the Darndest Things (Video)
- Michele Bachmann Exclusive: Pray Away the Gay
- John Wayne to John Adams: Michele Bachmann stands by her misstatements

When you search for Michele Bachmann on YouTube, the first five videos are titled:

- Michele Bachmann Says The Darndest Things
- Fun Facts About Michele Bachmann
- Bachmann Wants McCarthy-Like Witch Hunt For Anti-Americans
- Rep. Michele Bachmann Delivers Tea Party Response to State of the Union ***
- Michele Bachmann's Story of America

Only one of these videos is positive (***). Thus, Michele Bachmann could potentially have a problem introducing and defining herself to the entire American electorate.

6. How would she fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

Michele Bachmann was born in Waterloo, Iowa. Thus, there may be an inherent home state advantage for her. Certainly, there are parts of Iowa that are culturally conservative and she would win big there. However, would she win enough support with Iowa suburbanites who care more about jobs and getting things done? Barack Obama won Iowa by 9 points in 2008. I’m not sure if Bachmann's homefield advantage alone can overcome the President's margin of victory 2008.

As for Ohio, it is likely that she would lose the state. This recent Quinnipiac poll shows her losing Ohio by 13 points, 49 to 36. Unfortunately for the Congresswoman, this does not bode well for her hopes of winning the White House. Without a win in Ohio, a Republican candidate will almost certainly not prevail in 2012.

7. Chances that she could win the Presidency

Due to her likely loss of Ohio and other swing states, it seems unlikely that Michele Bachmann will take the oath of office in 2013. While there certainly is a chance, Congresswoman Bachmann has an uphill climb. Also, never forget how the mainstream media enjoys picking on a prominent, conservative woman. Sarah Palin, anyone?

Tim Pawlenty – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Tim Pawlenty

1. Who is he?

Governor Tim Pawlenty was the two-term governor of the great state of Minnesota, serving from 2003 to 2011. Before his time as chief executive, he served ten years in the state house, as majority leader for two terms. Before his political career began, he worked as a lawyer and businessman.

On the Republican political spectrum, Tim Pawlenty is right in the center. While he has been in politics for nearly two decades, he’s not a typical insider because he has never lived in Washington D.C. Tim Pawlenty is not the most conservative candidate in the field (Santorum and Bachmann have that covered), but he governed Minnesota, a fairly blue state, rather conservatively during his time in St. Paul.

Governor Pawlenty will be 51 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Two things: Executive experience and the big tent

Governor Pawlenty has more executive political experience than anyone else in the Republican field. His record in Minnesota is fairly impressive, especially considering the long line of liberals who preceded him as leaders of his state. As for the big tent, the Republican Party of 2011 consists of several different elements: Tea-Party Conservatives, Social Conservatives, Hawkish Conservatives, and Business Conservatives. Each candidate has a serious problem in appealing to every portion of the Republican base, except for Tim Pawlenty. His position in the middle of the Republican spectrum could potentially give him the support of each element of the Republican tent, with room for expansion towards swing voters.

3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Tim Pawlenty has an issue that other candidates do not have: a shortage of passionate rhetoric. Most other Republicans have passionate rhetoric as one of their key strengths, but Pawlenty is not one of them. Many feel that, even though they like Pawlenty and his strengths, they want to see more “fire in his belly.” Unfortunately for Pawlenty, Republicans feel somewhat bored by Governor Pawlenty. This could harm him in the primary, which typically has voters who are “fired up.”

4. What the candidate wants you to see

The Pawlenty campaign has hired excellent people to do his campaign videos.



5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

From The Hill:

Pawlenty backed cap-and-trade when he was governor of Minnesota and agreed to participate in the multistate Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord.

He also cut a radio ad for the Environmental Defense Fund in 2008 that urged Congress to “get moving” and “cap greenhouse gas pollution now.”

Also, many Republicans (including fellow Minnesotan Michele Bachmann) have attacked Tim Pawlenty for budget issues that were left behind in Minnesota. His support for cap and trade, which he has apologized for, might be an issue in the primary, while Minnesota budget issues may be a general election issue.

6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

Iowa could potentially vote for Pawlenty over Obama; however, for this to happen, Pawlenty would need to win the Iowa Caucuses, gain the trust of Iowa independents who are generally moderate, and then run a seamless campaign against the incumbent President. Both Iowans and Ohioans would probably like a Midwestern chief executive who has dealt with Midwestern issues, but Pawlenty just doesn’t have either the recognition or the support that he needs right now.

7. Chances he they could win the Presidency

Pawlenty might be the best candidate on paper for the GOP with the potential to unite the fractured GOP and bring in swing voters for the primary election; however, his rhetoric would not match up well with President Obama’s. Pawlenty is a mainstream conservative, and if he made it through to the general election, he might have a chance. However, the primary looks to be his biggest challenge at this point. Thus, the odds are slim that President Pawlenty will take the oath of office in January 2013.

Rick Santorum – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Rick Santorum

1. Who is he?

Former Senator Rick Santorum was a member of the U.S. Senate from 1995 to 2007, representing the fine folks of Pennsylvania. While there, he was the third ranking Republican as the chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. With a Senate career of 12 years, and two terms in the House of Representatives before that, Rick Santorum was in Washington D.C. for 16 years. He left the Senate after his defeat in the election of 2006. Before his time in Congress, he worked as a lawyer in Pittsburgh.

On the Republican political spectrum, he is very conservative. While he was in Washington D.C. for a long time, he is not a big party insider. However, he is a strong social conservative, and will most likely compete with Michele Bachmann for votes in the upcoming Iowa contests.

Senator Santorum will be 54 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Two things: Passion and social conservative support

Rick Santorum is perhaps the strongest social conservative in the field. He has certainly taken strong pro-life stands while fighting against gay marriage and polygamy and he has the battle scars to prove it. Family oriented Republicans will like his uncompromising rhetoric towards cultural conservatism.

3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses

His election from 2006, by all accounts, was a disaster.

While it was a down year for Republicans, Senator Rick Santorum was absolutely decimated by his opponent, current Senator Bob Casey, Jr. An incumbent senator losing by 17% is nearly unheard of. From Wikipedia:

Casey's margin of victory was the largest ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, and the largest margin of victory for a Senate challenger in the 2006 elections.

This was Rick Santorum’s last election. It was, suffice it to say, unpleasant. Republican primary voters might not be attracted to this wipeout, as it is the Senator’s most recent electoral memory.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

Here’s a no nonsense attack ad from the Santorum campaign, railing against the first three years of President Obama’s first term.



5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

Much like Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum has a Google problem. We will leave it at that, as it would be inappropriate to venture further down this path.

However, in the era of YouTube and Google, first impressions matter. Rick Santorum’s first impression to many Americans who searched for his name on the internet will be unpleasant. Sorry, Senator.

6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

Rick Santorum is coming to the plate with two strikes already against him: his prior loss and his trouble defining himself. While there is no current polling that I could find, I highly doubt that he could win either Iowa or Ohio, which is right next door to his home state of Pennsylvania.

7. Chances that he could win the Presidency

Speaking of Pennsylvania, it is probable that the people of his home state would reject him again in 2012, despite the homefield advantage. Without Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa, a Republican would have a very difficult time winning the Presidency.

Ron Paul – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Ron Paul

1. Who is he?

Congressman Ron Paul is a member of the House of Representatives, representing the Gulf Coast of Texas. He served in the House for nearly seven years in the 1970s and 1980s, was elected again in 1996 and has been serving for the past 15 years. Ron Paul is an obstetrician who has been delivering babies for almost a half century and he served in the Air Force during the Vietnam War. He has a son, Rand Paul, who is serving his first year in the United States Senate.

On the Republican political spectrum, Ron Paul is somewhat of a moderate. While he certainly holds very conservative positions on economic issues, he is very anti-war, calling for the end to the wars in the Middle East. His isolationism, coupled with his criticism of our monetary system (i.e. the Federal Reserve), makes him perhaps the biggest outsider in the GOP field. He could easily be defined as a libertarian and he even ran for President in 1988 as the Libertarian Party candidate.

Congressman Paul will be 76 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Three things: Passionate supporters, consistency, and tea-party connections

Many refer to Congressman Paul has the godfather of the tea party movement. Congressman Paul railed against the size and scope of the federal government for decades before the tea party movement began. His consistent libertarianism has generally earned him the respect and donations of many loyal followers. His supporters have an impressive online presence and were generally the most passionate during the Iowa Straw Poll in 2007.

3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Ronald Reagan was in his 60s when he was first elected. John McCain was 72 years old on election day in 2008. Age certainly became an issue in the election between McCain and President Obama. Ron Paul will be 76 years old on election day in 2012. Age will be even more of an issue this time around. If a 72 year old had a difficult time with candidate Obama, you can bet that Congressman Paul, in his upper 70s, will have a problem with his portrayal in the media. This constant reminder of his age could likely intimidate primary and general election voters.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

Here’s Congressman Paul’s most recent video, discussing his thoughts on the debt ceiling crisis.


5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

From The Hill:

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) suggested Friday that he wouldn't have voted in favor of the 1964 Civil Rights Act if he were a member of Congress at the time.

While this may be technically consistent from a libertarian philosophy, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is one of the most monumental pieces of legislation to emerge from Congress in the past century (supported by more Republicans than Democrats, by the way) This stance by Congressman Paul highlights some political issues in maintaining a consistent libertarian ideology.

Paul’s son, Rand, faced a similar issue while running for the Senate in Kentucky. From conservative commentator, George Will:

“He (Rand Paul) doesn’t understand that his job is to win a Senate seat, not conduct a seminar on libertarian philosophy.”

“The simple fact is that in 1964, we, as a nation, repealed one widely-exercised right – the right of private property owners to serve on public accommodations whom they want – and replaced it with another right, that is the right of the entire American public to use public accommodations…We were correct to do so.”

This historic piece of legislation states that the local Holiday Inn cannot deny hotel accommodations to a family because of their skin color. Needless to say, this might become a serious issue in either the primary or general election for Congressman Paul.

6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

There are some states that lean libertarian in philosophy. Unfortunately for Ron Paul, neither Iowa nor Ohio are among them. Iowa has one of the strongest records for minority civil rights since our statehood began over 165 years ago. Opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (albeit not on racist grounds) will not lead to an easy victory in Iowa or Ohio. Although Paul’s populist economic message might catch fire with moderate swing voters needed to win these two states, it doesn’t seem likely at this point.

7. Chances that he could win the Presidency

Without a win in Iowa or Ohio, the path to the Presidency becomes difficult for Congressman Paul. While he has passionate supporters, the media will most likely hone in on his age and his libertarian ideology, thus giving him an uphill battle for Presidency.

Mitt Romney – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Mitt Romney

1. Who is he?

The son of a former governor of Michigan, Mitt Romney was the one-term Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. He ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, but came in second/third. Prior to his governorship, he was most famous for his impressive work with the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. He is a former Senate candidate in Massachusetts, defeated in 1994 by the prolific Ted Kennedy. Outside of politics, his main occupation has been businessman, serving as the CEO of Bain & Company.

On the Republican political spectrum, Mitt Romney is fairly moderate. As the Republican governor of the liberal Massachusetts, Romney staked out moderate positions, which he carries with him today. Romney is also an insider, as he has many connections in Washington D.C. and in the business world. His connections and ideology place most other presidential candidates to the right of him on the conservative spectrum.



Governor Romney will be 65 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Four things: Money, name recognition, next-in line status, and electability

Mitt Romney raised the most money by far during the 2nd Quarter. Ron Paul raised just over $4.5 million while the bronze went to Tim Pawlenty for raising just under $4 million. Mitt Romney blew everyone away with $18 million raised (except President Obama who raised over $80 million). Also, because he did well in the 2008 primary, he is already well known by the GOP electorate. Furthermore, the Republican party (historically) has tended to elected the guy who is “next in line” for the nomination (i.e. John McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush, Reagan, Ford, Nixon, etc.). Romney is the current frontrunner for the nomination and this should help him in the primary. Plus, he has the best poll numbers against the President at this time.

3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Here’s the biggie: ObamaCare and RomneyCare. While Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts, he instituted universal health care in his state. Since the health insurance debate last year, President Obama has shrewdly "congratulated" Romney for helping inspire his health care bill that is now law. Most troubling to small government conservatives is the individual mandate, which forces every American to purchase private health insurance, which runs contrary to free-market principles. While Romney was running Massachusetts, he championed this mandate and signed it into law, thus requiring every person in Massachusetts to purchase health insurance. Needless to say, this is a rather unpopular part of ObamaCare today, and GOP voters might be disinclined to support Governor Romney because of the mandate that RomneyCare instituted in Massachusetts.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

Governor Romney is focused on President Obama, taking him to task over jobs, or the lack thereof. He is clearly looking forward towards the general election.



5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

In 2008, the media pounced on Romney, referring to him as a flip-flopper.

From the Washington Post:

1. Abortion. In October 2002, campaigning for governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney said he would "preserve and protect" a woman's right to choose. He now describes himself as an abortion opponent.


The above story has position changes on several other items including gun rights and immigration. These position changes certainly hurt him in 2008 among the Republican primary voters and they have not gone away. YouTube has several videos that highlight Mitt Romney’s past positions. As it stands, social conservatives are still wary of his new pro-life credentials.

6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

Governor Romney might be able to be competitive in Iowa, as long as he could convince social conservatives in the state to support him. As for Ohio, he is the most competitive compared to the other candidates.

In Ohio, President Obama leads each candidate polled but by different amounts
v. Romney – 4 point lead
v. Rick Perry – 12 point lead
v. Bachmann – 13 point lead
v. Sarah Palin – 16 point lead

Ohio is winnable by Romney, as he is only 4 points behind right now.

7. Chances that he could win the Presidency

As of right now, Mitt Romney has the best chance out of all Republican candidates to win the Presidency in 2012. He is the front runner and Intrade currently gives him a 12.5% chance of entering the White House in January 2013. He has to win the primary first, though.

Herman Cain – Iowa Straw Poll and Iowa Caucus Candidate Guide

Herman Cain

1. Who is he?

Herman Cain is a businessman. While he has worked for many companies, his most notable work was as the CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, where he turned the company from unprofitable to profitable. He served on the board of directors for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for four years in the 1990s. Before that, he worked with the United States Navy as a ballistics expert.

On the Republican spectrum, Herman Cain is an outsider. In fact, his only rival for true “outsider” status is Ron Paul. Cain has never served in Congress, in a governor’s mansion, or in a state house or state senate. He is a solid conservative, though, who is both socially and fiscally conservative.



Herman Cain will be 66 years old on election day 2012.

2. Why he could win the primary – Biggest advantages

Three things: The ultimate outsider, passion, and business experience

In a year where tea party outsiders are challenging the Republican establishment, Herman Cain remains the only real outsider in this Republican field. In a nation where many Republican voters are extremely fed up with Washington D.C., Cain can stand up and say, more so than any other person, “I am not a career politician.” His speeches are passionate and they draw upon his experience in the business world. These three things could give him an edge, as they did in the Fox News debate in May. Herman Cain was generally viewed as the winner of this debate.

3. Why he could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Herman Cain’s biggest strength is also his biggest weakness. There’s a reason that politicians always win Presidential primaries: politicians are extremely good at campaigning for political positions and the President of the United States is the ultimate political position. Furthermore, running a political campaign is a lot easier if you’ve ran a successful one before. With Cain, this has never happened before.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

His debate with President Clinton in 1993 is rather storied. Many would call this exchange as the beginning of the end of “Hillarycare.”



From Newsweek:
Herman Cain is the president of Godfather's Pizza and president-elect of the National Restaurant Association. An articulate black entrepreneur, Cain transformed the debate when he challenged Clinton at a town meeting in Kansas City, Mo., last April. Cain asked the president what he was supposed to say to the workers he would have to lay off because of the cost of the "employer mandate." Clinton responded that there would be plenty of subsidies for small businessmen, but Cain persisted. "Quite honestly, your calculation is inaccurate," he told the president. "In the competitive marketplace it simply doesn't work that way."

Cain became somewhat of a conservative hero after this exchange.

5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

The challenge for the atypical presidential candidate (i.e. the non-politician) is foreign policy. It’s incredibly important to understand that the President of the United States is still, for the most part, the leader of the free world. Thus, with so many issues in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East issues encircling US foreign policy, you’d better know your stuff. Similar to Sarah Palin’s damaging Bush Doctrine answer 3 years ago, Herman Cain’s answer to the Palestinian Right of Return serves as evidence that he needs to brush up some more.



Also, his recent comments regarding freedom of religion, or lack thereof, have not placed him in the most positive light. He has since apologized for his remarks regarding Islam.

6. How would he fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

If Herman Cain were to become the nominee, he could most likely go toe to toe with President Obama in a debate. However, the President has shown himself to be an exceptional politician, despite his 2008 campaign which centered around him being “above the fray” and an “atypical” politician. What remains to be seen is whether a straight shooter like Herman Cain will be able to resonate with people in swing states such as Iowa and Ohio.

7. Chances that he could win the Presidency

Politicians usually win the presidency. When they don’t, it’s a war hero that sweeps into office. Herman Cain is neither. Unfortunately for Cain, history has shown that candidates such as him (Steve Forbes anyone?) do not fare well once the voting begins. Thus, his chances of winning the primary and then defeating President Obama are fairly small.

Candidate Guide for the 2011 GOP Iowa Straw Poll in Ames - 2012 Republican Primary

The Iowa Straw Poll (ISP) is less than a month away and the time to start winnowing the large field of GOP candidates has arrived. History has shown that after each previous Straw Poll, there’s always been at least one candidate who drops out due to poor performance. Thus, the ISP maintains at least some importance in this year-long primary process.

Who are the candidates on the ISP Ballot? Here they are:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Jon Huntsman
Thaddeus McCotter
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum




Over the next few days, we’ll be looking first at the candidates that will most likely receive a good amount of support in the Iowa Straw Poll. For example, conventional wisdom suggests that Newt Gingrich, Thaddeus McCotter, and Jon Huntsman will not do very well in the Straw Poll. Because of this, we’ll save posts about them for later.

In this series of posts, we’ll be looking at each candidate in regards to seven different topics

1. Who are they?

We’ll do a quick overview of their past experiences. We’ll also look at where they lie on paper, with the help of the Nate Silver, statistics guru. In February, he created the chart below (which I’ve updated by removing those who are definitely not running). This chart outlines where each candidate lies (insider-outsider, conservative-moderate, with each color representing the candidates’ home regions).




2. Why they could win the primary – Biggest advantages

What gives them the extra edge in the Republican race to face President Obama?

3. Why they could lose - Biggest weaknesses

Every candidate has at least one weakness, either with the Republican electorate or the general population.

4. What the candidate wants you to see

By now, we’ve seen advertisements from nearly all the candidates. In this category we’ll put their best foot forward.

5. What the candidate does NOT want you to see

Ahh…the power of YouTube. In the second decade of this new millennium, a regular American’s first impression of these candidates will be what they find on YouTube or through a Google search. Thus, any video clip, press release, or skeleton in the closet that is problematic can easily sink a candidate in the primary, or even worse, the general election.

Remember that President Obama has already been through extensive “vetting” during his primary against the Clintons and then in the general election as well. For the most part, we shouldn’t expect an “October Surprise” that hurts Obama. We should, however, make sure that a nasty surprise doesn’t sink our candidate…that’s what the primary season is for. Imagine how angry the Democrats would have been if they had nominated John Edwards as their candidate in 2008.


6. How would they fare against President Obama in Iowa and Ohio

I believe that Iowa is going to be a very competitive state in November of 2012. Thus, a candidate should be able to perform well here in a general election. As for Ohio, the Republican candidate must win Ohio to become the next President of the United States. Thus, we’ll estimate how a candidate might perform there as well.

7. Chances that they could win the Presidency

Currently, the prediction markets (such as Intrade) believe that President Obama has roughly a 60% chance of being reelected. However, that number could go either way depending on who the Republicans nominate for the Presidency. Simply stated, some candidates have a better shot at winning against Obama.

We’ll be looking at the following six candidates:

Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

I am not including Sarah Palin (former governor of Alaska) and Rick Perry (current governor of Texas), because they are not declared candidates at this point. Plus, I’m a little concerned about the following two polls, which has them both losing to Obama in Ohio and Texas.

Ohio, a must win state for the Republicans in 2012

Obama 51 - Palin 35 (16 point lead)
Obama 47 - Perry 35 (12 point lead)

Texas, usually a very reliable state for the Republicans in presidential election:

Obama 46 - Palin 44
Obama 47 - Perry 45

While I am certainly concerned about Ohio, my biggest fears regarding Palin and Perry revolve around Texas. Needless to say, all Texans know who Obama is and who Palin and Perry are. And yet, with that knowledge, this poll has them losing the state’s electoral votes to President Obama. While they are not candidates at this point, we’ll see what transpires over the next month.